(...continued from Discord & Chaos!...)
Underestimating the value of "The Draw" is a critical mistake.
MLP CCG relies on a variable card (not random) in every faceoff. It will usually be between 1 and 6 (as the vast majority of cards' powers are between 1 and 6). However, these variable results are finite and fixed, unlike a d6. (If I roll a d6 29 times, I could - potentially - roll 29 6's. If I flipped 29 MLP cards from my Draw pile, it would be impossible to flip 29 power 6's. This is an important distinction).
Why? Because the amount of 6's, 5's, 4's, 3's 2's, and 1's are predetermined when the deck is built. A random generator has the same chance of rolling any given number. Not so with the draw pile.
On a chart, these chances would look like a straight horizontal line. The Faceoff Draw does not generate random numbers. Only unknown ones.
In this deck there are 2 0-powered cards, 16 1-powered cards, 8 2-powered cards, 7 3-powered cards, 6 4-powered cards, 2 5-powered cards, and 2 6-powered cards.
This changes everything with the chances of the Draw. It creates what we'll call a Draw Curve. (In this case Fluttershy has the highest chances of drawing a 2's and 5's. (Now, admittedly, there are other factors that effect and modify this: the abilities of "Random" and "Inspired" are good ones - but we're not speaking of a deck's synergy or a player's strategy; we're only looking at the deck's potential. If your MLP deck contains no 6-powered cards you can never draw a 6).
If we plot Fluttershy's spread of power cards on the same chart we see something like this.
This is the deck's Draw Curve.
(...continued on The Mana Curves of MLP CCG...)